Whither Cuba and Castro?

UPDATE:  This From Stop The ACLU:

“Cuban authorities” informed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his party’s leaders that Castro’s health is worse than publicly acknowledged. The newspaper reported Castro, 79, apparently has abdominal cancer, and that the unidentified Cuban authorities said he would be too incapacitated to reassume power.”

This quote is from a Brazillian Newspaper

Dunno how true it is, but it certainly makes things more interesting.

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For almost 50 years, Castro has been a bur under America’s saddle.  For most of that time, they were propped up by the old Soviet Union.  When the Soviet Union went belly up, they landed hard, but with the help of Canadian and European tourism and trade, they’ve managed to stumble along. 

If you listen to the extreme left, it is a Socialist paradise.  Free health care, free education (thus almost 100% literacy), they recite it like a mantra.  Never mind that the health system really isn’t all that great. They quarantine AIDS patients and constantly run short of medicines.  I’m not so sure literacy means much if the only thing to read is what the government allows.  It’s like giving you free food, but if all you get is stale crackers, what’s the big deal?  The only good thing is the hope that they will use that literacy to throw off Castro’s yoke. 

Celebrities flock there and get their pictures taken with Fidel.  Some, like Danny Glover, Harry Belafonte, and Jack Nicholson (among many) praise Castro.  It’s interesting they all celebrate the “equality” of Cuba, but just can’t seem to find a nice little hovel to settle in and live there.

If Socialism is such a great deal, why is the minimum wage at 225 Pesos (a little less then $112)?  That’s not for a day, a week, or even for a month, that is 225 Pesos per year.  The average wage for Cubans is 300 Pesos per year or less than $150, per year.  That’s about 40 cents a day.  Of course that is the official figures.  From what I’ve read over the last few days is that government corruption is rampant and hustlers abound.   Basics are heavily subsidized by the Government, but tourists can get most anything for the right price.  Petty crime such as muggings and purse snatching happen often enough for travelers to be vigilant.  If you rent a car, pay to have it watched at night or it will most likely be broken into.  Visitors say it's almost like they were in a time warp back to the 50's.

Essentially, the average Cuban is not much better off than most third world nations after almost 50 years of totalitarian, Socialist dictatorship.  Certainty, they aren’t a whole lot more advanced than the Batista years.

It would be hard for anyone to make a serious case that Cuba is poor because of the United States embargo.  Just about every other country in the world does business with the Cubans.  Canada and Western Europe are huge trading partners. 

As for Castro, I read in Forbes sometime ago, is worth almost a billion bucks.  They admit that their estimate is more art than science, but whether it’s a billion or 500 million, it’s still just like every other leftist dictator that ever subjugated a country.  They get rich off the backs of the common people they swear they are trying to help.  “socialismo o muerte” (Socialism or death) is a great slogan to rally the peasants, but in the end, it’s usually more of a threat then a principle.  While the average Cuban scrapes by on a few pesos a day, Fidel and the upper echelons of the government enjoy the perquisites of leadership.  He travels in a motorcade of shiny black Mercedes-Benz and you can bet he doesn’t stay in dirty little casas when visiting other parts of the island.

Despite his brag that he survived eight Presidents (I suppose it helps if you never have to face an opponent in an election that is rigged anyway), and his doctor’s prediction that he will live to be 150, he appears to be at the end of his race.  He might already be dead, but I doubt it.  I believe he is gravely ill and may not survive.  If he does survive, I’m certain it won’t be for the 70 years his doctor predicted.  If he is alive, I doubt he’ll see his 82nd birthday. 

When he does die, Raul is set to take the reins.  I’ve heard it said that he is more hard line than his older brother, but he is 75.  How long he’ll be in charge is anyone’s guess, but it isn’t going to be that long and then what?  Raul’s powerbase and relationship to his brother will probably keep him going but when he dies, there appears to be a huge vacuum.  No one is predicting anything.  I’ve read in various places that Raul likes his liquor.  As far as I can figure, there is no “third in line”.

Post-Castro Cuba will undoubtedly bring about big changes. Castro has been a major force in Western Hemisphere politics for 50 years. There will be a significant number of Cubans who will not want to change.  The end of the Castro cult will come hard and it will come bloody.  I think the US should have eased and normalized relations with Cuba twenty years ago to prepare for the day the last Castro dies.  I think transition for them to a market economy would probably be much easier if we’d already been there for 20 years than when Raul dies.  It’ll be that much harder.

The administration says they have a plan, let’s hope it’s a good one.

The Diary of the Mad Pigeon is also discussing this topic.

Thanks to Wizbang for Open Trackbacks

VW

Comments

[canuckistani]

I've always been curious as to why Castro pisses Americans off so much. Cuba is a little shit country in the middle of nowhere and is only important because the world's only superpower dislikes it. I bet if the US never bothered with Cuba, Castro would've lost his importance a long time ago. He's only important because the US makes him so.

I don't think the end of the Castro cult will come hard or bloody if the people are allowed to do it on their own terms. I think the Cuban people are ready to be liberated, they are just waiting for the Castro brothers' reign to come to an end. Besides with so many Cuban-Americans in Florida, I think they could be used to ease the transition to a market economy when the time comes.

There are already some capitalist mechanisms in place in Cuba to stimulate the flagging economy, however, it is on a tight leash right now. But this shows change is coming. I just hope Cuba doesn't go hog wild like Russia when it does change. Reforms were implemented too fast, which caused considerable hardship to the people. It was a shock to many and now they've ended up moving back towards Communism. If done right in Cuba, I don't think they will have that boomerang effect.

[Violence Worker]

As much faith as I have in humankind ulimately winning over tryanny, that victory is often bought with lots of blood.

In Cuba, there will be a sizable faction that will want to keep Communism and they, along with every other faction, will fight for their scraps.

I suspect they are all finalizing their plans.

VW

[canuckistani]

It will only degenerate into violence if Cuba allows it. Perhaps Canada could be the mediator in negotiations between the US and Cuba since we have such a good relationship with them. But yes, that hotheaded Latin blood is unpredictable. It won't be our end that starts anything, that's for sure.

[Just another republican]

Petty dictators tend to piss rational people off. Moreso Americans, maybe, I'm not sure. I hope not. I'd hate to beieve that Castro is running Cuba like his own little amusement park and the only people it pisses off are the Amreicans.

I read that 500 leftists have signed a letter warning the US not to interfere with Cuba. Wich is odd. We haven't done jack-**** in a few decades, and he was pointing missles at us back then too so it wasn't entirely one way.

I think we should open up limited trade. Too include magazines, books, grain, beef, and medicine as part of that deal we buy cigars and old chevies (wich are no doubt worth more than a few grand to collectors). I know the embargo isn't killing Cuba, Castro is killing Cuba but it would at least open up Cubans to information, food and medicine.

I also firmly beieve that if the leftists don't want us to interfere we shouldn't Especially when poor Castro needs vital medical attention and specialist doctors only found outside his playpen.

I say theis about few people but mean it full well when I say it. I hope he dies. he is a pathetic petty dictator. A despicable man who has stolen everything from Cuba. Everything.

For his brother...well we'll wait and see.